On the Association Between a Random Parameter and an Observable

• Autores: Angelika van der Linde
• Localización: Test: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, ISSN-e 1863-8260, ISSN 1133-0686, Vol. 13, Nº. 1, 2004, págs. 85-111
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • The association between an observable and a random parameter characterizes their joint distribution given the marginal distributions. It has been shown to be incorporated in the (log-)odds ratio function. The association is inherent in each of the conditional distributions and hence determines the learning process formalized in Bayes' theorem. The paper focuses on two applications. Commonly used measures of dependence, especially Kullback-Leibler distances between densities of interest are identified and interpreted as expected values of the log-odds ratio function. Frequently Bayesian inference is based on the maximization of an expected utility. If the utility of a probability density is defined by the logarithmic score function, the expected utility can often be decomposed approximately into a term of ``fit'' and a term of ``model complexity''. The log-odds ratio parameterization of probability densities reveals that ``model complexity'' again can be defined as an expected value of the log-odds ratio function, i.e., as a measure of dependence between the observable and the random parameter. The ideas are illustrated throughout with examples from the class of conjugate exponential families.