Resumen de Drivers and scenarios of Scottish tourism - shaping the future to 2015
This paper examines how a National Iourism Organisatioit, VisitScotland is making use of scenario planning to identify key factors influencing tourism performance. The future of Scottish tourism to 2015 will be affectedcted by macrotrend; and drivers in UK society. These trend: include demography, globalization, suslainability, lechnologp/ ontmunfcation, politics, transport, fuel supply and pricing, and levels of inflation and affluence. 'T'hese complex phenomena will impact on tourism in a range of interrelated ways which remain difficult to quantify, 'this paper will i]]ustratc the utilization of the cenarin planning approach to capture expert opinion and reflective discussion in order to build and infonn potential futures for the Scottish tourism industry. 'W'hat if' thinking is utilized to anticipate the future and conclusions are dross ii front two potential future scenarios for Scottish tourism in 2015.
