Second-order effects plus pan-European political swings: An analysis of European Parliament elections across time

• Autores: Simon Hix, Michael Marsh
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Vol. 30, Nº. 1, 2011, págs. 4-15
• Idioma: inglés
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• Dialnet Métricas: 6 Citas
• Resumen

  • After seven waves of European Parliament elections and European Union enlargement to 27 states, the time is ripe to analyse the temporal robustness of the second-order model. We pool all the elections in a single evaluation and also look at election-by-election variations. We analyse changes in party performance over time in all EU states as well as in the ‘original 10’, to see whether any cross-time changes are driven by the changing composition of the EU. We also look for pan-European trends in each election, as a way identifying ‘European effects’ distinct from second-order effects. There are few consistent winners and losers, although socialist parties performed worse in the last three elections than their size and government status would predict.