"Experts" Who Beat the Odds Are Probably Just Lucky

• Autores: Jerker Denrell
• Localización: Harvard business review, ISSN 0017-8012, Vol. 91, Nº 4, 2013, págs. 28-29
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • An interview is presented with business scholar Jerker Denrell focusing on his research study, carried out with colleague Christina Fang, on the accuracy of financial analysts' forecasts. He discusses the finding that analysts who successfully predict a single highly unusual event often have poor records in terms of the accuracy of multiple predictions they make over time, saying this suggests accurate prediction of unusual events should be discounted in evaluating business forecasters.