The Chávez vote and the national economy in Venezuela

• Autores: Richard Nadeau, Éric Bélanger, Thomas Didier
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Vol. 32, Nº. 3, 2013 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Economics and Elections: Effects Deep and Wide), págs. 482-488
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Hugo Chávez has attracted considerable political support since his emergence on the Venezuela political scene. But what are the bases of this support? More specifically, is economic voting a significant component of his support? Through investigation of the 2010 LAPOP Barometer data, we estimate the various components of a Chávez vote model. In a series of logistic regression analyses, the weight of sets of explanatory variables is assessed, as well as the weight of the overall model. In particular, the role of the economy is carefully explored. First, is Chávez held accountable for the economy? Second, does his personal leadership image dominate his economic policy image? We find evidence of a significant economic voting component in popular support for Chávez, although several other explanatory variables also exert a substantial impact on it.