Resumen de Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Alessandra Dalla Valle, Claudia Furlan
Electric power demand is increasing worldwide and, in the last years, energy policy has focused on expanding nuclear power, especially in developing countries. One of the key points surrounding this issue is the depletion time of uranium; further, forecasters had estimated that the use of nuclear reactors would come to a halt in 2020 by IAEA. It is apparent that we can no longer sustain the evolutionary model of energy consumption typical of the last century. The Fukushima disaster of 2011 reopened the debate about the use of nuclear energy to produce electricity. Japan, Switzerland and Germany decided to halt new nuclear projects. However, the question remains: would the world's uranium resources suffice to meet nuclear energy projects, especially those slated in the developing countries? This paper offers an analysis of nuclear energy diffusion of some graduated developing countries (the Slovak Republic and South Korea) and some developing countries (Ukraine, China, Bulgaria, and India); moreover, it estimates the depletion time of uranium using a Generalized Bass model and OECD forecasts, with the uranium requirements scheduled for 2035. This study concludes that, given the estimated depletion time of uranium, and considering 50 years as a reasonable lifetime for reactors, the present international nuclear energy policy, and in particular the nuclear projects of the developing countries are not sustainable.
