Giving your knowledge half a chance

• Autores: Andrew Bacon
• Localización: Philosophical Studies, ISSN-e 1573-0883, Vol. 171, Nº. 2, 2014, págs. 373-397
• Idioma: alemán
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• Resumen

  • One thousand fair causally isolated coins will be independently flipped tomorrow morning and you know this fact. I argue that the probability, conditional on your knowledge, that any coin will land tails is almost 1 if that coin in fact lands tails, and almost 0 if it in fact lands heads. I also show that the coin flips are not probabilistically independent given your knowledge. These results are uncomfortable for those, like Timothy Williamson, who take these probabilities to play a central role in their theorizing