Resumen de Análisis bayesiano para la evaluación del nivel de riesgo en carreteras y uso del análisis de jerarquía de procesos (ahp) en la elección de rutas.
José Rodríguez, Gerardo Grijalva, Olegario Martínez, Arturo Soto, Sara Rodríguez
Decision making in the choice of routes to follow for general trucking in Mexico, depends on the level of risk, cost, delivery time and rates of violence in the region. The trucking business in general has always been an activity which naturally turns out to be very risky for any investor, however it is demonstrated that this factor carries little weight in decision-making on route to be followed by general trucking. This paper shows an application of Bayesian analysis to assess the level of risk that exists in each of the two routes by which one could travel from Durango, Durango to Monterrey, Nuevo Leon. Furthermore, it is show that the methodology of Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP) can be used as a decision making tool to determine what the path to follow (free road or toll road) between the two cities.
