Impact of fragmented emission reduction regimes on the energy market and on CO2 emissions related to land use: : A case study with China and the European Union as first movers

• Autores: Sander A.C. Otto, David E.H.J. Gernaat, Morna Isaac, Paul L. Lucas, Mariësse A.E. van Sluisveld
• Localización: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, ISSN-e 1873-5509, Vol. 90, Nº. 1, 2014, págs. 220-229
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • In recent years, an approach based on voluntary pledges by individual regions has attracted interest of policy-makers and consequently also climate policy research. In this paper, we analyze scenarios in which the EU and China act as early-movers in international climate policy. Such a situation risks leakage between regions with ambitious emission reduction targets and those with less ambitious targets via fossil-fuel markets, displacement of heavy industry and land-use consequences. We examine some of these factors using the IMAGE model. While IMAGE does not include all mechanisms, we find the leakage rate to be relatively small, about 5% of the emission reductions in the EU and China. The far majority occurs via the energy market channel and the remainder through land-use change. Reduced oil prices due to less depletion forms the key reason for this leakage impact.