Forecasting technological discontinuities in the ICT industry

• Autores: Karin Hoisl, Tobias Stelzer, Stefanie Biala
• Localización: Research Policy, ISSN-e 1873-7625, Vol. 44, Nº. 2, 2015, págs. 522-532
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Building on the existing literature on evolutionary innovation and technological change, this paper aims to identify signals of technological discontinuities (�innovations that dramatically advance an industry's price vs. performance frontier�; ) and to analyze the importance experts assign to these signals to help them predict technological discontinuities. As an extension to the analysis, we investigate whether the valuations of signals of discontinuities of experts employed with firms (internal experts) differ from those of external parties like consultants or venture capitalists.

    � Our study adds important insights to the discussion about signals of technological discontinuities using a unique dataset obtained from a conjoint analysis. The conjoint approach allows for a simulation of the forecasting process and an experimental variation of the predictors as well as the consideration of utility trade-offs. The results show that the expected increase in the benefit of users caused by further development of a technology is considered the most important signal to help experts forecast technological discontinuities. Human restrictions are deemed to make the lowest contribution. Whereas internal and external experts agree about the perceived least important signals, internal experts attach more importance to legal frameworks like standards for helping them to predict whether discontinuities occur than external experts. External experts assign more importance to signals that are related to margins and the possibility to recombine technology with innovations from other technical fields.

    � Overall, the results summarized in this paper contribute to the literature on technological discontinuities by extending our understanding of the signals of these discontinuities. Additionally, the paper contributes to the literature in the fields of R&D and innovation management, in particular to literature on external knowledge sourcing. We find that the judgments of internal and external experts vary considerably. Hence, the advice provided by the two groups of experts can be seen as complementary rather than substitutive. Whether or not or under which conditions they should consider consulting with external experts for advice opens an interesting avenue for future research. Furthermore, the importance attached to the �expected increase in the users� benefit due to further development of the technology� to help predict technological discontinuities by both, internal and external experts, emphasizes the significance of users as signals for discontinuities.