Credit constraints and growth in a global economy

• Autores: Nicolas Coeurdacier, Stéphane Guibaud, Jin Keyu
• Localización: American economic review, ISSN 0002-8282, Vol. 105, Nº 9, 2015, págs. 2838-2881
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • We show that in an open-economy OLG model, the interaction between growth differentials and household credit constraintsâ��more severe in fast-growing countriesâ��can explain three prominent global trends: a divergence in private saving rates between advanced and emerging economies, large net capital outflows from the latter, and a sustained decline in the world interest rate. Micro-level evidence on the evolution of age-saving profiles in the US and China corroborates our mechanism. Quantitatively, our model explains about a third of the divergence in aggregate saving rates, and a significant portion of the variations in age-saving profiles across countries and over time. (JEL E21, E22, F21, F32, F41, O16, P24)