Forecasting the 2015 British general election: The Seats-Votes model

• Paul Whiteley ^[1] ; Harold D. Clarke ; David Sanders ^[1] ; Marianne C. Stewart ^[2]
  1. [1] University of Essex

     University of Essex

     Colchester District, Reino Unido

     
  2. [2] University of Texas at Dallas

     University of Texas at Dallas

     Estados Unidos

     
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Nº 41, 2016, págs. 269-273
• Idioma: inglés
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• Dialnet Métricas: 1 Cita
• Resumen

  • This paper applies the Seats-Votes Model to the task of forecasting the outcome of the 2015 election in Britain in terms of the seats won by the three major parties. The model derives originally from the ‘Law of Cubic Proportions’ the first formal statistical election forecasting model to be developed in Britain. It is an aggregate model which utilises the seats won by the major parties in the previous general election together with vote intentions six months prior to the general election to forecast seats. The model was reasonably successful in forecasting the 2005 and 2010 general elections, but has to be modified to take into account the ‘regime shift’ which occurred when the Liberal Democrats went into coalition with the Conservatives in 2010.