The wisdom of crowds: What do citizens forecast for the 2015 British General Election?
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Andreas E. Murr [1]
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[1] University of Oxford
University of Oxford
Oxford District, Reino Unido
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- Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Nº 41, 2016, págs. 283-288
- Idioma: inglés
- Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
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Resumen
Who do you think will win in your constituency? Most citizens correctly answer this question, and groups are even better at answering it. Combining individual forecasts results in the ‘wisdom of crowds’ explained by Condorcet's jury theorem. This paper demonstrates the accuracy of citizen forecasts in seven British General Elections between 1964 and 2010, and reports what citizens interviewed in February and March forecasted for the election in May 2015. ‘Citizen forecasting’ predicts vote shares and winners in constituency elections, and seat numbers and governments in national elections. The paper also introduces a new method for predicting vote shares from citizen forecasts. Citizen forecasts are direct, accurate, and comprehensible. Pollsters should collect them and communicate their results more often.
