Resumen de Assessing decarbonization pathways and their implications for energy security policies in Japan
Ken Oshiro, Mikiko Kainuma, Toshihiko Masui
For countries without sufficient fossil fuel resources such as Japan, climate policies in the mid- to long term need to satisfy requirements not only for decarbonisation but also for energy security in the context of limitations on renewable energies and nuclear power. This study assesses the feasibility of decarbonization pathways to 2050 and their effects on energy security, considering the latest energy and climate policies in Japan using the AIM/Enduse model. The analysis illustrates that deep decarbonization by 2050 is technically feasible even without nuclear power based on three elements: energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon electricity and electrification in end-use sectors. These decarbonization pathways, in the long term, could also contribute to enhanced energy security, reducing import dependency to less than a half of the total primary energy and reducing import bills for fossil fuels by around 70% compared with the current level. Notably, renewable energies could play a strategically significant role in satisfying both climate and energy security requirements. In the mid-term (to 2030), however, although GHG emissions are reduced by 14–20% from 1990 levels, import dependency is relatively stable at today's levels, particularly without the restart of nuclear power. Given the limited potential for renewable energies in the mid-term, it is suggested that the availability of nuclear power will have negative impacts on carbon intensity and energy security, and policies to enhance the security of fossil fuels, including diversification of fuel sources and supply routes, will be required for the foreseeable
