Analysis of China's real estate prices and macroeconomy based on evolutionary co-spectral method

• Li, Juan ^[1] ; Chen, Xuemin ^[2]
  1. [1] School of Economics and Management ,Beijing Jiaotong University
  2. [2] School of Culture Industries, Beijing Institute of Graphic Communication
• Localización: Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, ISSN-e 2013-0953, Vol. 8, Nº. Extra 2, 2015 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Special Issue: LISS 2014), págs. 598-614
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Purpose: This paper investigates the dynamic interaction between the real estate market and the macroeconomic environment of China by use of dynamic coherence function based on co-spectral analysis. Design/methodology/approach: Through a theoretical perspective, the dynamic interrelationship among economic variables at different time intervals (both long and short terms) is analyzed. Findings: The empirical results show that China’s real estate market features a high coherence with the change of the long-term interest rate, employment rate and money supply, while there is a moderate coherence between the real estate market and the inflation rate and economic growth rate, and the coherence between the short-term rate of interest and the real estate market is the lowest. Research implications: Previous researches have some shortcomings. They do not consider the dependence between nonlinear series, but the latter is crucial to avoid the deviation of results. In this paper, we proposed a new method of experience to overcome these shortcomings. Originality/value: The paper provides a reasonable explanation accordingly to different coherences between the real estate market and the macroeconomic variables.