Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems

• Autores: Joël Guiot, Wolfgang Cramer
• Localización: Science, ISSN 0036-8075, Vol. 354, Nº 6311, 2016, págs. 466-468
• Idioma: inglés
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• Dialnet Métricas: 5 Citas
• Resumen

  • The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies.