Resumen de La prévision du temps à moyenne échéance en France
The goal of this paper is to describe the methods used by the forecasting services of Météo-France to interpret medium-range numerical weather predictions. These methods have recently made it possible to extend the limit of validity of weather forecasts from five to seven days, while improving their mean reliability. These methods also lead to a confidence index in the forecasts. The first part of the paper presents the traditional method for interpreting numerical predictions used for making weather forecasts. The limits of this method are underscored for medium-range weather forecasting. The second part deals with near medium-range forecasting, while the third describes a method of interpretation for the longer ranges. The fourth part discusses the contribution of ensemble prediction. The paper concludes with some general issues on medium-range weather forecasting and an example of the application of the methods of interpretation described in this paper to a real meteorological case.
