Resumen de Total probability theorem versus shakeability: a comparison between two seismic-hazard approaches used in Central Asia
The comparison of seismic‐hazard maps produced in different countries, or computed for the same country but at different times, is often hampered by the difficulties encountered in properly accounting for the differences among the implemented methodologies. An example of such difficulty is given by the comparison between the hazard maps computed during the Cold War period for the former Soviet Union, which includes vast regions exposed to high seismic hazard (e.g., the central Asian countries and the Caucasus region), and recent assessments carried out for the same regions following approaches developed in Western countries (e.g., Ullah et al., 2015). These comparisons should take into account the differences in the underlying methodologies used in the former Soviet Union and, in several cases, still in use. In the Western countries, the process of formalizing the seismic‐hazard assessment within a probabilistic framework (probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment [PSHA]) was developed during the 1960s at the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM) and at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (Rosenblueth, 1964; Esteva, 1967, 1968, 1970; Cornell, 1968). With the works of Cornell (1971) and Merz and Cornell (1973), PSHA was finally formalized within the context of the total probability theorem, which accounted for ground‐motion variability, and its use then became widespread through the implementation and dissemination of the EQRISK software (McGuire, 1976). A comprehensive review of the early development of PSHA can be found in Bommer and Abrahamson (2006) and in McGuire (2008). On the other hand, the development of a probabilistic framework for seismic‐hazard assessment in the former Soviet Union (hereinafter referred to as the USSR [Union of Soviet Socialist Republics]) was initiated in the 1940s with the works of Medvedev (1947) and developed by Riznichenko in the 1960s (e.g., Riznichenko, 1965, 1992). To quantitatively represent the …
