Resumen de Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence

Alvaro Escribano Sáez, Juan Ignacio Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Pablo Villaplana

• This article analyses the evolution of electricity prices in deregulated markets. We present a general class of models that simultaneously takes into account several factors: seasonality, mean reversion, GARCH behaviour and time-dependent jumps. The models are applied to daily equilibrium spot prices of eight electricity markets. Eight different nested models were estimated to compare the relative importance of each factor in each of the eight markets. We find strong evidence that electricity equilibrium prices are mean-reverting, with volatility clustering (GARCH) and with jumps of time-dependent intensity, even after adjusting for seasonality.