Modeling of expectations of economic agents as instrument of diagnostics of economic cycles (on the example of the russian economy)

• Autores: Marat Rashitovich Safiullin, Leonid Alekseevich Elshin
• Localización: QUID: Investigación, Ciencia y Tecnología, ISSN-e 2462-9006, ISSN 1692-343X, Nº. Extra 1, 2017, págs. 870-875
• Idioma: inglés
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen

  • The emerging trends in the development of socio-economic systems characterized by a high level of the dynamics of institutional transformations and their corresponding macroeconomic generations, based on progressive forms of creating value added, require improved approaches to the analysis methods of their development. If previously the processes of economy industrialization, implementation of large-scale decisions, high localization of economic processes have been the priority development directions, now the following strategic development guidelines come to the fore: the formation and large-scale replication of local low concentrated growth points; diversification of business activity; development and dissemination of technological, institutional, product changes; development of social parameters of economic growth, based, inter alia, on the principles of environmental friendliness of economic and operational activities, etc. The complexity and multidimensionality of the socio-economic development processes creates a basis for improving the traditional approaches to the theory of modeling and forecasting the economic growth and, consequently, cyclical development of the economy. Strengthening the economy globalization processes and simultaneously regionalization, formation of complex and dynamic structures that form crisis phenomena actualizes the issue of modern regulation of the cyclical development of the economy, whose solution becomes difficult within the framework of classical methods of the theory of cyclism. The traditional approaches to modeling the cyclical development of the economy can lead to a decrease in the quality of predictive models built on the basis of extrapolation methods with the use of scenario forecasts for the development of market and institutional factors - drivers of cycle phase changes. The foregoing means that the current developments of the forecasting models under consideration carry a whole range of risks associated with the accuracy of prediction and anticipation of cyclical fluctuations. In this regard, there is a need to develop, scientifically substantiate (verify) and approbate the models of cyclical fluctuations based on such factors that would have a high sensitivity level to changes in the external and internal environment of the economic system and had a high level of predictability of the cyclical trends. In the course the research, we scientifically substantiated and tested the model of cyclical fluctuations of the economy constructed on the basis of an integral cross-correlation indicator that characterizes the expectations of economic agents in a concentrated form.