Scenario forecasting of development of industrial production on the basis of modelling of expectations of economic agents: Methodical approaches and their approbation

• Autores: Marat Rashitovich Safiullin, Leonid Alekseevich Elshin
• Localización: QUID: Investigación, Ciencia y Tecnología, ISSN-e 2462-9006, ISSN 1692-343X, Nº. Extra 1, 2017, págs. 691-697
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • The complexity and multidimensionality of the processes of socio-economic development provides the basis for improving the traditional theoretic approaches to modeling and forecasting economic growth. The main objective of the research is to develop based on the assessment of the expectations of economic agents the scenario-prognostic models for the evolvement of industrial production of the national economy. Based on the cross-correlation analysis of a combination of factors of the institutional and market order that affect the aggregated trends of economic growth, the parameters of their influence on the system of emerging expectations of economic agents were identified. Using the methods of econometric analysis, the values of subindexes specifying the integral estimates of the business activity index were determined and the parameters of the multiple choice model characterizing the relationship between expectations and the industrial development of the national economic system were identified. Based on the results of the approbation of the above approach, the development scenarios of industrial production in the Russian Federation for the medium-term period (until 2020) were developed subject to the programming of certain institutional and market factors. It was established that high rates of industrial development contributing to overcoming structural problems in the economy are able to be formed, mainly in the case of institutional reforms that form a stable basis for the generation of positive, stable expectations regarding the transformation of the current way of shaping the mechanisms of macroeconomic shifts. The main provisions and conclusions of the paper can be used by the scientific community, as well as representatives of business and government in developing forecasts of socio-economic growth and the rationale for development mechanisms.