Resumen de Scenario forecasting of tendencies of development of macroeconomic indicators of the region on the basis of models of the multiple choice (on the example of the Republic of Tatarstan)
Yulia V. Hayrutdinova, Anna V. Aksyanova, Marat Rashitovich Safiullin, Leonid Alekseevich Elshin
The work is performed according to the Russian Government Program of Competitive Growth of Kazan Federal University (Number for publications: 26.8732.2017/8.9).The purpose of the study is to develop an algorithm for scenario forecasting of macroeconomic indicators when deciding on the development strategy of the region using the economic and mathematical methods of multiple choice. Based on the macrostructural modeling method, we developed a model for forecasting the development of the main macroeconomic indicators. We implemented an approach to forecasting the development trends of macroeconomic indicators in the region based on the binary choice model. Using the binary choice model allowed developing the most probable directions of the economic situation development - optimistic and realistic forecast scenario.
