Resumen de Approximate Bayesian Computation and Simulation-Based Inference for Complex Stochastic Epidemic Models
Trevelyan J. McKinley, Ian Vernon, Ioannis Andrianakis, Nicky McCreesh, Jeremy E. Oakley, Rebecca N. Nsubuga, Michael Goldstein, Richard G. White
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and other simulation-based inference methods are becoming increasingly used for inference in complex systems, due to their relative ease-of-implementation. We briefly review some of the more popular variants of ABC and their application in epidemiology, before using a real-world model of HIV transmission to illustrate some of challenges when applying ABC methods to high-dimensional, computationally intensive models. We then discuss an alternative approach—history matching—that aims to address some of these issues, and conclude with a comparison between these different methodologies.
