The dynamic process of dynamic modelling: the cocaine epidemic in the United States of America

• Autores: Doris Behrens-Abouseif, Gernot Tragler
• Localización: Boletín de estupefacientes, ISSN 0251-7086, Vol. 53, Nº. 1-2, 2001
• Idioma: inglés
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (html)
• Resumen

  • In the present article, the authors review several recent dynamic models of the current cocaine epidemic in the United States of America (both uncontrolled and optimally controlled), which differentiate between two levels of use (“light” and “heavy”). Even though all the models have their origin in a study carried out at the RAND Corporation's Drug Policy Research Center in the early 1990s, each has been developed by extending or refining another. In addition to pointing to interesting policy conclusions drawn from the analysis of those models, the authors also demonstrate that the development of dynamic models of illicit drug consumption is itself a dynamic process where subsequent refinements lead to increased quality and reliability of the resulting policy conclusions.