Beat bookies with their own odds

• Autores: Chris Baraniuk
• Localización: New scientist, ISSN 0262-4079, Nº. 3148, 2017, pág. 17
• Idioma: inglés
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • The chances of making a profit by betting on football matches, say, are extremely low in the long run. Now a trio of researchers has managed to beat the odds with a simple formula. Lisandro Kaunitz at the University of Tokyo and his colleagues tried a more direct approach: using the bookmakers' odds against them. The team studied data on nearly half a million football matches and the associated odds offered by 32 bookmakers between Jan 2005 and Jun 2015. For every game, the trio looked for odds that might yield a better return than the average offered by bookies. Mean odds of 2 to 1 suggest the bookies collectively think this reflects fair odds for that outcome. But 5 to 1 offers higher returns should the outcome materialize. The team used the historical data to work out the optimal distance from the mean odds--the one that would give a positive payout for the largest number of games. In a simulation, their strategy made a return of 3.5 per cent--beating random bets, which resulted in a loss of 3.32 per cent. So the trio decided to try it in the real world. They developed an online tool to apply their odds-averaging formula to upcoming football matches.