How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility: Evidence from Rural Malawi

• Autores: Gil Shapira
• Localización: Journal of human resources, ISSN 0022-166X, Vol. 52, Nº 3, 2017, págs. 680-718
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • ABSTRACT:This paper assesses the link between beliefs about HIV infection and fertility. I develop and estimate a dynamic discrete-choice life-cycle fertility model in which expectations about life horizon and child survival depend on perceived HIV infection. Using data containing beliefs on own status, I show that the presence of HIV reduces average lifetime fertility in rural Malawi by 0.15 births. Counterfactual policy simulations predict that prevention of mother-to-child transmission and HIV testing would have overall negligible impacts on fertility, although testing reduces the fertility of infected women, leading to a reduction in child mortality.