Resumen de Cooping Up Avian Flu.
This article focuses on the use of computer models to help combat the spread of an epidemic. In anticipating the next pandemic, flu specialists think the H5N1 avian flu strain, which has jumped from birds to dozens of people in Asia, will inevitably adapt to spreading from person to person. If the disease follows the pattern of previous pandemics, a third of the world's population could be infected and perhaps 1 percent of those people might die. That is, unless the inevitable could be delayed long enough for countries to ramp up production of vaccines and antiviral drugs. The concept is simple: detect the first clusters quickly and then slow or squelch the emerging virus by blanketing the outbreak area with antivirals. Emory University biostatistician Ira M. Longini, Jr. is one of several researchers using computer models to test the strategy. By simulating each person's susceptibility and daily contacts, Longini's model projects how the adapted flu strain might spread. INSET: THE LINCHPIN.
