Resumen de Seasonal forecasting performance considering varying income elasticities in tourism demand
This article analyses varying tourism demand elasticities by season across business cycles based ontime series in the context of forecasting performance. We compare for the first time the fore-casting performance of models considering the asymmetric behavior of tourism demand withmodels focusing on symmetric demand behavior. For this reason, this article analyses the out-bound expenditures of different source markets by quarter since 2000. The estimation resultsshowed that it was only possible to identify asymmetric income effects. In the case of the priceeffects, we had to accept—based on the data set available—symmetric behavior. The generaloutcome of the study revealed compelling evidence that the majority of models allowing us tomeasure asymmetric income effects yield superior forecasting performance in comparison tomodels considering only the possibility of symmetric income effects across business cycles.
