Resumen de Capital accumulation, economic growth and the balance-of-payments constraint: The case of Mexico, 1951-2014

Ignacio Perrotini Hernández, Juan Alberto Vázquez Muñoz, María Isabel Angoa Pérez

• español

  En este artículo contrastamos el modelo de Thirlwall (1979) y el de Clavijo y Ros (2015) que ofrecen explicaciones dicotómicas del crecimiento económico de largo plazo. Proponemos, además, un modelo en el que la acumulación de capital y la tasa de crecimiento de la productividad del capital determinan la tasa de crecimiento económico de largo plazo consistente con una posición constante de la balanza de pagos como porcentaje del PIB. Aplicamos este modelo para explicar las causas del lento crecimiento de la economía Mexicana durante el periodo 1982-2014. Nuestro análisis empírico nos conduce a la conclusión de que la drástica disminución de la demanda interna de bienes nacionales y de las tasas de acumulación neta de capital y de la productividad del capital es significativa para explicar el estancamiento de la economía Mexicana. Asimismo, las elasticidades ingreso de la demanda de exportaciones y de importaciones también explican, aunque en menor medida, ese estancamiento AbstractAfter a critical assessment of both Thirlwall’s long-run growth model and Clavijo’s and Ros’s (2015) model in which capital accumulation determines output growth, this paper displays an alternative model where capital accumulation and the growth rate of capital productivity determine the long-run growth rate of output which is consistent with a constant position of the balance of payments as a percentage of GDP. Then, the latter is applied to inquire the causes accounting for Mexico’s low economic growth rate during 1982- 2014. We conclude, on empirical grounds, that the sharp decline in the internal demand for domestic goods and both the rates of net capital accumulation and capital productivity played a major role in the slowdown of the Mexican economy. The income elasticities of the demand for exports and imports also played a role, albeit to a lesser extent.

• English

  After a critical assessment of both Thirlwall’s long-run growth model and Clavijo’s and Ros’s (2015) model where capital accumulation determines output growth, this paper displays an alternative model in which capital accumulation and the growth rate of capital productivity determine the long-run growth rate of output which is consistent with a constant position of the balance of payments as a percentage of GDP. Then, the latter is applied to inquire the causes accounting for Mexico’s low economic growth rate during 1982-2014. We conclude, on empirical grounds, that the sharp decline in the internal demand for domestic goods and both the rates of net capital accumulation and productivity played a major role in the slowdown of the Mexican economy. The income elasticities of the demand for exports and imports also played a role, albeit to a lesser extent.