Resumen de Modelling of expectations of economic agents and their influence on dynamics of Industrial Growth
Leonid Alekseevich Elshin, Marat Rashitovich Safiullin
The article presents a step-by-step assessment algorithm for the expectations of economic agents in a concentrated form that is an expression of business activity determining the dynamics of social and economic growth. We justified that the process of identifying the expectations should be based on a comprehensive assessment of factors characterized by the advanced dynamics relative to general economic trends and representing an expression of institutional and opportunistic transformations. Relying on this approach, we made an attempt in this work to develop a step-by-step modeling algorithm for the expectations of economic agents, the approbation of which was reflected in their quantitative assessment, applied to the Russian economy for the period of 1996-2015. The implementation of this stage of the study made it possible to assess, using the economic and mathematical analysis methods, the level of influence of the business activity index on the industrial development parameters of the Russian economic system. This, in turn, determined the procedure for developing scenarios for the development of the industrial sector of the national economy for the medium term (until 2020), taking into account the programming of structural components determining the expectations of economic agents. It is established that high rates of industrial development contributing to overcoming the structural problems in the economy are able to be formed mainly in the case of implementation of the institutional reforms forming a stable basis for the generation of positive, stable expectations regarding the transformation of the current order forming the mechanisms of macroeconomic shifts.
