Resumen de Two Reconstructions of August–July Precipitation for Central Northern Arizona from Tree Rings
Tamara Fletcher, Ramzi Touchan, Kai Lepley, Nesrine Rouini, Robert Bloye, Thomas S. Tremarelli, Kelly Peña, David M. Meko
This study reports two multi-century regional reconstructions of annual precipitation based on Pinus ponderosa and P. edulis from four sites in central northern Arizona. It compares standard regional and time-nested methods to generate reconstructions from 1581–2016 C.E. and 1529–2016 C.E., respectively. The strongest climate relationship is a positive correlation between total ring width and 12-month total precipitation ending in July of the growth year. The chronologies account for 50% of the variance of observed annual precipitation in the regional model and 59%, 60%, and 47% and 35% in the nested models. The two reconstructions are highly correlated (Pearson's correlation r > 0.97, p < 0.001) demonstrating that the reconstructions are highly similar over the period common to both reconstructions, with the nested-models’ advantage of extending the range of the reconstruction. The precipitation reconstructions are significantly correlated (r = 0.66, p < 0.001) with the North American Drought Atlas (NADA).
