Vibrio parahaemolyticus in the Chesapeake Bay: Operational In Situ Prediction and Forecast Models Can Benefit from Inclusion of Lagged Water Quality Measurements

• Benjamin J. K. Davis ^[3] ; John M. Jacobs ^[1] ; Benjamin Zaitchik ^[2] ; Angelo DePaola ^[4] ; Frank C. Curriero ^[3]
  1. [1] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

     National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

     Estados Unidos

     
  2. [2] Johns Hopkins University

     Johns Hopkins University

     Estados Unidos

     
  3. [3] a Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA; b Spatial Science for Public Health Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
  4. [4] e Angelo DePaola Consulting, Coden, Alabama, USA

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• Localización: Applied and Environmental Microbiology, ISSN 0099-2240, Vol. 85, Nº 17, 2019
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Vibrio parahaemolyticus is one of the leading causes of seafood-borne illness in the United States and across the globe. Exposure often occurs from the consumption of raw shellfish. Despite public health concerns, there have been only sporadic efforts to develop environmental prediction and forecast models for the bacterium preharvest. This analysis used commonly sampled water quality measurements of temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and clarity to develop models for V. parahaemolyticus in surface water. Predictors also included measurements taken months before water was tested for the bacterium. Results revealed that the use of multiple water quality measurements is necessary for satisfactory prediction performance, challenging current efforts to manage the risk of infection based upon water temperature alone. The results also highlight the potential advantage of including historical water quality measurements. This analysis shows promise and lays the groundwork for future operational prediction and forecast models.