Ex-post analysis of the influence of tariff liberalisation on Asean exports

• Ekaterina Y. Arapova ^[1]
  1. [1] Moscow State Institute of International Relations

     Moscow State Institute of International Relations

     Rusia

     
• Localización: Applied econometrics and international development, ISSN 1578-4487, Vol. 17, Nº. 2, 2017, págs. 135-154
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • 2015 became a year of formal establishment of ASEAN Economic Community, envisioned as a single common market and production base. And the success in achieving integration goals depends of economic effects, attained by the member countries at the previous stage of integration. This paper aims at conducting ex-post analysis and assessing empirically the trade effects of integration for ASEAN members within AFTA. The study focuses on how regional economic integration influences export volumes, the hypothesis proposed in the research is that regional economic integration has a cyclical nature: it’s efficiency rises in the first years after formation of integration block, achieves maximum and then starts decreasing. According to the obtained results, AFTA economic integration potential has been exhausted. The highest efficiency of economic integration was achieved in 2005-2007. Although economic integration influences ASEAN exports in a positive way, efficiency of trade liberalization has lowered significantly in recent years