Resumen de Accession impact and outlook for Croatian and EU crop and livestock markets

David Kranjac, Krunoslav Zmaic, Ivo Grgic, Petra Salamon, Emil Erjavec

• Aim of study: To investigate the impact of Croatia’s accession to the EU on its agricultural sector, its market outlook and the EU’s key agricultural products up to 2030.Area of study: Croatia and European Union member statesMaterial and methods: Comparative approach was used in order to identify similarities of the changes that took place when other Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) acceded to the EU (results of previously conducted research) with the changes that happened in Croatia (historical data between 2010 and 2016). The second approach involved the AGMEMOD partial equilibrium model, which has been used as a comprehensive tool to model the complex outlook of Croatian agricultural markets. The results of the Croatian outlook were compared to the EU’s AGMEMOD outlook results in order to identify future trends in key agricultural market development (production, yield and net trade) and whether these newly established trends were comparable with EU trends.Main results: The changes that took place in the Croatian agricultural sector during and after the EU accession period are not significantly different from the trends and changes observed in other Central and Eastern EU member states. Similarities can especially be found in neighbouring CEEC countries (Hungary and Slovenia), which kept their producer prices close to EU levels prior to accession. Furthermore, the results indicate a similarity with CEEC trends in terms of the strengthening of crop production compared to livestock.Research highlights: Positive effects of EU integration on the Croatian agricultural sector took place after a few years of adjustment. Simulations of future market developments indicate many similarities between Croatia and EU 13 member states.