Resumen de Causalities among growth related policy variables inTurkey, 1950-2004
This study aims to investigate the existence of causal relationships between imported production goods (investment and intermediate) and foreign exchange rate, export, and gross national product, between export and gross national product (GNP) during import substitution and export-oriented industrialization periods in Turkey, and the existence of causal relationships between the domestic or foreign terms of trade (FTOT), realized foreign direct investment and GNP, export, and imported production goods during the 1982-2004 period. It discusses associations and controversies between theoretical statements and real world with the aims of economic policies.
The models are estimated based on existing causality to show the signs, the magnitudes of causal variables on endogenous variables, and approves long run relationships between variables in addition to Granger causations. The imported production goods affect GNP positively in all periods. Export increases production goods import during the import substitution period, but the imported production goods supply causes export increases during the export-oriented industrialization period. Increases in domestic prices and GNP reduced value of Turkish Liras against US Cents in all periods, associated with exchange rate determination theories of the Monetary and the Purchasing Power. Devaluation of domestic currency led to increases in export earnings during the export-oriented period, but export earnings directed the exchange rate level during the import subtitution period.
Increases in export revenues led to increases in investment goods import, On the other hand, increases in the supply of imported intermediate goods brought about higher export revenues in all periods, but its magnitude was found higher during the export-oriented period. The foreign exchange rate directs export, export directs GNP, and GNP directs the foreign exchange rates after 1980. Deteriotions in TOT increase export earning and reduce investment goods import and GNP significantly, but its effect is found insignificant on export and intermediate goods import in cointegaration analysis. The significance of TOT effect on investment goods import and GNP is found contraversial to the weak causality. The increases in GNP and in the supply of imported production goods attract foreign direct investment inflow into Turkey.
