Resumen de Terms of Trade of agricultural and food Products, 1951-2000
Raúl Serrano Lázaro, Vicente José Pinilla Navarro
This paper focuses on analysing the evolution of the terms of trade of products in the agricultural and food trade in the second half of 20th century. We have compiled 56 new price indices for internationally?traded agricultural products. Furthermore, in order to obtain real prices, the agricultural price series have been deflated by an international trade price index that includes major changes in the prices of not only manufactured goods, but also other commodities, such as energy products, which have had so much influence on the shocks occurring in the period. Another feature of this work is the use of a new time series method. We shall analyse the presence of two structural breaks in non?stationary series, as well as establishing the years of structural break endogenously. Our aim is to characterise the distinct trends of the groups of products by determining which groups experienced the greatest decline, and the possible causes, both economic and institutional
