Representing and Predicting Tourist Choice Behavior: a Rule-Based vs. a Utility-Based Approach

• Van Middelkoop, Manon ^[1] ; Borgers, Aloys ^[1] ; Arentze, Theo ^[1] ; Timmermans, Harry ^[1]
  1. [1] Eindhoven University of Technology

     Eindhoven University of Technology

     Países Bajos

     
• Localización: Tourism analysis, ISSN 1083-5423, Vol. 5, Nº. 2-4, 2000, págs. 113-118
• Idioma: inglés
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • As an alternative to the more traditional utility-based models, this article proposes and tests a rulebased approach to modeling tourist choice behavior. The CHAID tree-induction algorithm is used to formulate and test tourists' decision rules for the choice of season. The article shows that a set of 100 exclusive and exhaustive decision rules equals the predictive performance of a MNL model involving 255 parameters. Moreover, it is shown that the number of parameters of a MNL model can be reduced without decreasing the predictive performance by using CHAID preprocessed condition states. Overall, however, none of the models clearly outperforms the other models.