Varna M. Ramaswamy, Walter F. Kuentzel
The economic base of rural communities has shifted over the last century from agriculture and extraction of natural resources to a reliance on a manufacturing sector and again to a current reliance on the service sector. This article documents and analyzes the process of social change in a traditional tourism community (Stowe, VT) from 1950 to 1993. Specifically, we analyze how tourism, as a service sector industry, affects the social and economic trajectory of a rural community. This study used time-series Auto Regressive Integrative Moving Average (ARIMA) models of the relationship between tourism development and community indicators of social capital (volunteerism and political activism), community vitality (community infrastructure and fiscal capacity), and business structure (manufacturing, producer services, consumer services, and medical services). Tourism development was significantly related to political activism, community infrastructure, manufacturing, medical services, and consumer services at a zero lag, showing a parallel relationship between tourism development and the community variables, but not a causal relationship. Implications of this study for rural community development suggest careful consideration of the use of tourism as an economic development tool. This study does not advise against its use as a development strategy; it merely recommends careful investigation of the available community resources and community “readiness" before proceeding with tourism-related developments.
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