Projecting policy effects with statistical models

• Christopher Sims ^[1]
  1. [1] University of Minnesota

     University of Minnesota

     City of Minneapolis, Estados Unidos

     
• Localización: Revista de análisis económico, ISSN-e 0718-8870, ISSN 0716-5927, Vol. 3, Nº 2, 1988, págs. 3-19
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This paper attempts to provide a picture of the current frontiers in quantitative modeling for forecasting and policy analysis. It does so by summarizing some recent developments in three areas: reduced form forecasting models; theoretical models including elements of stochastic optimization; and identification. I believe these developments are in the process of changing the ways economists think about methodology, but this paper does not pay much attention to my views in that area. 1 Instead I try to provide a concrete idea of what is going on in current research, with some remarks on the direction we seem to be headed.