Resumen de Modeling codling moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) phenology and predicting egg hatch in apple orchards of the Maule Region, Chile

Wilson Barros, A. L. Knight, Eduardo Fuentes Contreras

• Studies were conducted in the Maule Region to characterize the phenology of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) The Predictive Extension Timing Estimator (PETE) and a logistic phenological model were validated with eight data sets of cumulative moth catches in sex pheromone (PH) and kairomone-baited traps and the cumulative occurrence of fruit injuries from apple (Malus domestica Borkh.) orchards during the 2009-2011 seasons. Second, the start of egg hatch was predicted from the first sustained male and female moth catches (biofix) in traps baited with pear ester (PE), PE+acetic acid (AA), PE+PH, and PH alone. Both phenological models fit data well except that the logistic provided a better fit than the PETE model of the phenology of egg hatch of the codling moth in the first generation, with a difference of 11 d between models in the prediction of 50% egg hatch. No significant difference was found between biofix dates established for males using either PH or PE+PH lures or for the biofix date based on female catches with PE+AA or PH+PE. The biofix established with the sustained female catch occurred nearly 11 d later than the male-based biofix. The use of a female biofix provided on average a 4-d improvement in the prediction of first egg hatch compared with the traditional use of a male biofix, but this difference was not significant. The use of PE+AA lures increased the proportion of cases when a female-based biofix could be established compared with the use of the PH+PE lure.