Validation of a model to estimate climate effects on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in a hydrological basin

• Salazar-Solano, Vidal ^[1] ; Moreno-Dena, Jesús M ^[1] ; Rojas-Rodríguez, Isaac S. ^[2] ; De La Torre-Valdez, Hugo C. ^[3]
  1. [1] Centro de Investigación en Alimentación y Desarrollo

     Centro de Investigación en Alimentación y Desarrollo

     México

     
  2. [2] Universidad de Sonora

     Universidad de Sonora

     México

     
  3. [3] Universidad Estatal de Sonora

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• Localización: Agro Productividad, ISSN-e 2594-0252, Vol. 15, Nº. 1, 2022 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Enero), págs. 77-85
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • ABSTR ACT Objective. To validate a simulation model which enables the estimation of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production, based on climatic variables in the lower Mayo River basin in Sonora, Mexico.

    Design/methodology/approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Crop Yield simulation model was used to estimate productive wheat yields. The model was fed with climatic data for the 1979-2014 period, provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Subsequently, the results were validated using the Nash-Sutcliffe, PBIAS, and R2 statistics. The predictive capacity of the model was validated in four of the six Hydrological Response Units with agricultural land in the study area: 26, 27, 28, and 31.

    Study limitations/implications. The model does not include adaptation measures and future production scenarios based on climate data estimation must be developed.

    Findings/conclusions. The inf luence of climate change on wheat production has been confirmed; the predictive model used is an important tool that can be adjusted and adapted to other regions and production systems.