Has tourism driven house prices in Germany? Time-varying evidence since 1870

• Sefa Awaworyi Churchill ^[1] ; John Inekwe ^[2] ; Kris Ivanovski ^[3]
  1. [1] Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University

     Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University

     Australia

     
  2. [2] Macquarie University

     Macquarie University

     Australia

     
  3. [3] Monash University

     Monash University

     Australia

     

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• Localización: Tourism economics: the business and finance of tourism and recreation, ISSN 1354-8166, Vol. 28, Nº. 7, 2022, págs. 1705-1723
• Idioma: inglés
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • Using a historical data set and recent advances in non-parametric time series modelling, we investigate the nexus between tourism flows and house prices in Germany over nearly 150 years. We use time-varying non-parametric techniques given that historical data tend to exhibit abrupt changes and other forms of non-linearities. Our findings show evidence of a time-varying effect of tourism flows on house prices, although with mixed effects. The pre-World War II time-varying estimates of tourism show both positive and negative effects on house prices. While changes in tourism flows contribute to increasing housing prices over the post-1950 period, this is short-lived, and the effect declines until the mid-1990s. However, we find a positive and significant relationship after 2000, where the impact of tourism on house prices becomes more pronounced in recent years.