The impact of climate change on food security dimensions in Egypt by 2070

• Ehab Abdelaziz ibrahim ^[1]
  1. [1] Cairo University

     Cairo University

     Egipto

     
• Localización: New medit: Mediterranean journal of economics, agriculture and environment = Revue méditerranéenne d'economie, agriculture et environment, ISSN 1594-5685, Vol. 22, Nº. 2 (junio), 2023, págs. 139-149
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Egypt is one of the countries expected to suffer from climate change in the next 50 years. This study analyses the impacts of climate change on food security dimensions in Egypt during the period 2022–2070 by using statistical analysis methods (ARIMA and MLR). The study found that there is a negative and significant impact of climate change on food availability, food access, food utilization, and food stability. In terms of food availability, increases in temperature will reduce yields of wheat from 8.1% up to 24.5%, maize from 9.7% up to 29.1%, and rice from 2.1% up to 6.1% by 2070. In terms of food access, food prices are expected to rise from 13.5% to 18.9% by 2070. In terms of food utilization, it is expected that there will be an increase in the percentage of children under 5 years of age who are overweight from 17.8% to 21.2% and an increase in the prevalence of obesity in the adult population (18 years and older) from 40.0% to 53.1% by 2070. In terms of food stability, the food security level in Egypt will decrease from 76.1% to 73.9%. This study recommends some adaptation options to reduce the impact of climate change on food security dimensions in Egypt, including designing and applying a national adaptation strategy.