Tunisians are poorer today than they were before the Jasmin Revolution toppled the Ben Ali regime in January 2011. 20% of the population is poor. That is the inevitable consequence of the country’s wealth tumbling from $44.8bn in 2008 to just below $40bn last year.
Young educated talent continues to flee the country, essentially to France, Germany and Italy. Most people have turned away from politics, disgusted by a spectacle which combines low comedy, corruption and an increasing misuse of statistics by the government.
The promises made by leading politicians, in the run up to next autumn’s polls that, come 2020, a real start will be made on serious economic reforms fall on deaf ears.
Turmoil in Algeria and Libya has pushed foreign currency fleeing both countries into the large informal sector which sustains activity but does not show up in official statistics. Remittances from Tunisians abroad, which earn the country more than tourist receipts, dropped by 9% during the first quarter of 2019 compared with the same period last year.
So long as Tunisian leaders remain convinced that they can get away with going cap in hand to international lenders and, in exchange for yet more false promises, get money, there is little chance of serious economic reform. Tunisia’s foreign partners are doing the country no favours by never calling its political leaders’ bluff.
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