Resumen de Kosovo: Multiple Crises and a Challenging Future
Kosovo’s deep crisis on several fronts may have a negative impact on two other important challenging processes: the establishment of a tribunal to judge war crimes committed by the Kosovo Liberation Army and the dialogue for normalizing relations with Serbia.
Unemployment (35.1% according to official figures), corruption and the poor economic situation of the country (GDP per capita is US $ 3,579, poverty rate reaching 29.7%) are to be part of the explanation for the strong position against Thaci. With population of 1.8 million, political affiliations have more to do with the personality of the leader -and clientelistic practices- than with ideological or programme differences between parties.
A poll conducted in 2013 showed an increasing degree of disaffection towards EULEX, the most important EU foreign mission. The suspicion of corruption within EULEX will only increase this trend.
Another vital factor impacting the development of the dialogue is that since 2011 Serbia and Kosovo have signed several agreements in line with the normalization of relations, but many of them are only partially implemented or not implemented at all.
The current Serbian conservative government (previously hard nationalist) has received strong critics from the far-right movements for this 180º political spin and has been accused of being a traitor. The recent release of Vojislav Seselj from the ICTY can be very destabilizing for the country.
A new national discourse is coming forth in Albania aggravated by internal political factors and magnified by the independence of Kosovo. But the voting polls did not reward this nationalist approach.
In a climate of tension between Albania and Serbia and the danger of Muslim population radicalizing their stand, there is a possible risk of instability in Kosovo which could have a negative impact on the región.
