In Tunisia, the state is still in a position to act –both administratively and in security terms. But the political stalemate which has prevailed during the past six months has made the policing of the frontiers with Libya and Algeria ever more difficult. The absence of consensus between the main political forces has seriously weakened the hand of the security forces, be it the garde nationale or the army.
Continued political uncertainty has allowed the economy to deteriorate as private investors remain reluctant to invest and foreign investors consider moving out.
The history of modern Tunisia has known violence a plenty. The founder of modern Tunisia Habib Bourguiba may have promoted women’s rights with greater conviction than any of his Arab peers and built strong state institutions but he was an autocrat.
After international sanctions against Libya were lifted a decade ago, Tunisia became a redistribution centre for Asian manufactured goods from China and India via Dubai: anything from plasma screens to white goods and Turkish carpets.
By September 2011, up to one million Libyans had taken refuge in Tunisia. The poorer ones moved into camps and the well to do into nice hotels along the coast or rented villas: Today as many as 500,000 Libyans remain in those camps.
For all the faults of the Ben Ali regime, many sectors of the Tunisian economy were well managed, certainly better than in most neighbouring Arab countries. Tunisia can ill afford the political stalemate of recent months. Weak frontiers and a bazaar economy are unlikely to deliver free and fair elections, let alone a more democratic system.
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