Resumen de A Framework for Integrated Sustainability Assessment to support decision making. Application to solar thermal and natural gas combined cycle electricity production in Mexico
Decision makers interested in promoting sustainable development must equally consider the environmental, economic and social effects of any project initiative. Moreover, in an increasingly global world, these effects should be accounted for over the whole value chain, as many of involved economic activities may occur in different countries whose contexts and regulations differ substantially. In order to support decision makers in achieving this goal, this thesis proposes the Framework for Integrated Sustainability Assessment” (FISA) as a methodological framework to conduct a comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of the production of goods and services along their supply chain. The different chapters of this thesis contain a detailed description of the FISA framework as well as its application to two electricity generation alternatives in Mexico to test the validity and usefulness of the proposed framework. One of the added values of FISA is that it accounts for the total effects of any product or service along its value chain across the three sustainability pillars. First, thanks to the Multiregional scope of the Input Output methodology (Multiregional Input Output “MRIO”) and the use of the World Input Output Database (WIOD), it is possible to assess the direct, indirect and induced socioeconomic and environmental effects derived from the increase in the demand of goods and services across the different economic sectors and countries involved in the supply chain. Second, the integration of the social dimension is achieved by combining the MRIO results with information on different social risks existing in the same WIOD economic sectors worldwide included in the Social Hotspots Database (SHDB). Such combination results in the Project Social Index (PSI), which helps identify the potential harmful Project Social Hotspots (PSH), defined as those economic sectors that result largely stimulated by the project (in terms of working hours) and also which present high social risks. Finally, the three types of impacts are simultaneously reported by means of FISA charts, making it possible to identify the larger positive but also negative impacts of any project within the three sustainability pillars across those countries involved directly and indirectly in its supply chain. Furthermore, this methodological framework can be also used to compare the sustainability performance of alternative investment choices and guide decision makers towards the selection of the best option from a comprehensive sustainability point of view. FISA´s theoretical and methodological basis, together with its application to concrete case studies, are presented in four different chapters. First chapter describes in detail the proposed methodological framework. Next, FISA is applied to conduct a sustainability impact assessment of the supply chain of Solar Thermal Electricity (STE) generation in Mexico. The estimation of the associated economic, environmental and social impacts along the STE supply chain makes it possible to identify the sustainability hotspots both from direct and indirect effects, while considering the international trade within the different project phases. Results show that the largest socioeconomic effects occur in Mexico mainly as a result of direct effects during the investment phase. With regards to labor impacts, while most of the employment effects (both in terms of job creation and working hours) take place in Mexico, the largest income generation figures occur outside Mexico due to indirect effects. As for the social dimension, results indicate that social risks from direct effects identified by the Project Social Hotspots in Mexico should be monitored. Regarding environmental effects, most of the impacts would take place beyond Mexican borders, mainly as a result of indirect activities during the investment phase. The results from this assessment could help decisions makers identify not only direct sustainability hotspots of the Solar Thermal Electricity project but also the indirect ones occurred throughout the supply chain. These results could also guide decision makers towards implementing the required actions and measures to overcome the potential negative impacts and foster the positive ones. The second FISA´s case study application presented in Chapter 3 consists on the comparison of the sustainability assessment results associated to the STE with those obtained from electricity produced with Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) technology. Socioeconomic results show that STE would create a higher added value and jobs of better quality. With regards to the social dimension, effects from both technologies involve some social risks but they are easier to identify in the case of STE from direct effects. As for the environmental effects, NGCC´s impacts are remarkably larger than STE´s ones, mainly as a result of natural gas consumption. Regarding the location of the effects, despite its embedded international trade, most impacts would take place in Mexico, especially those associated to the NGCC technology. Again, the results derived from the application of FISA to these alternative case studies could help decision makers in the selection of the most sustainable energy investment choice and guide them towards applying the necessary measures to minimize the negative impacts of the selected project on the social, economic and environmental sustainability pillars while promoting the positive ones. Finally, in order to test the relevance and usefulness of the FISA framework for decision makers as well as the impact of their preferences on the FISA´s results, an evaluation has been conducted by means of a questionnaire to Mexican decision makers involved in the energy sector. This survey intended, first, to facilitate the interpretation of the FISA results, which have been classified into different sustainability indicators categorized into socio-economic, social and environmental dimensions, and later, transformed and consolidated into a single “Aggregated Sustainability Endpoints” (ASE points) as a way to ease the decision making process. Second, the relevance of the FISA´s results was analyzed in the survey to identify which impacts are considered a priority for decision makers. Next, the original FISA results were weighted according to the stakeholders´ revealed preference over the various sustainability indicators. The obtained new weighted results allow to compare the two alternative technologies when considering the stakeholders preferences. Such comparison shows that, while the original results indicate that NGCC has an aggregated score 1.94 times worse than STE, when incorporating decision makers´ priorities the ratio increases to 2.06. In this sense, the negative score of NGCC increased due to the relevance given by decision makers to environmental impacts where this technology achieves the largest negative figures, as well as some social risks like human rights risks. Furthermore, most of the interviewees considered FISA impacts useful for the decision making process, but recommended that the inclusion of other indicators such as the grid connection feasibility or the need for local components and personnel should be also considered. This thesis concludes that the FISA framework could be a useful instrument for decision makers to analyze the impacts of alternative investment projects on the three sustainability dimensions. The results from the FISA applications to concrete case studies also suggest that, not only the direct but also the indirect effects occurring along the supply chain globally should be equally accounted across in the three sustainability dimensions. Additionally, the results indicate that when substituting electricity produced with NGCC by STE in Mexico, remarkable environmental benefits would take place and also larger socioeconomic benefits in terms of added value creation and quality of employments. Furthermore, the identified Project Social Hotspots indicate that some associated social risks should be monitored carefully, and they would be easier to identify in the case of STE technology from direct activities. Finally, following the results from the stakeholders´ consultation, it can be concluded that the proposed tool is useful and informative for their decision making processes.
