The city is constantly produced through a gradual substitution of its elements. However, in some occasions an increase in uncertainty accelerates the changes in urban systems, causing irreversible modifications in their structures. These changes in urban form and topology tend to produce intensified and unpredictable transformations of spatial systems. This acceleration facilitates the registration of urban processes that otherwise would be difficult to observe. The main objective of this research is to analyse the changes in these systems, in which we identify the security and complexity strategies that occur due to an increase in uncertainty and to evaluate both strategies within the evolution of the city. For that purpose, segments of the city are examined as urban systems. The differentiation between the social and spatial systems enables the analysis of the impact of the environment on the system and vice versa. The concept of security has been tackled through critical literature and its triple theoretical interpretation [safety, security and certainty] has been related with the notion of uncertainty in order to build the sequence violence¿fear¿uncertainty¿apparatus¿security. Urban complexity is understood as the diversity of states that an urban system ¿identified as an open system that exchanges matter, energy and information with its environment¿ can reach. In this research and from the spatial perspective, the urban form and its topology are analised by the binomial plot-building and its adjacent communication channels.
The theoretical framework on urban security and complexity helped to develop a specific method of analysis for urban systems whose form was changed due to high uncertainty. The method gathers the observations from the conceptual framework on security and complexity and distributes them asymmetrically in five consecutive yet synchronous phases: urban form [1], increase of uncertainty [2], application of the apparatus [3], change in urban form [4], information flows [5]. These five phases are applied to three different empirical studies ¿three urban systems in the process of change under uncertainty¿, analysed through specific morphological and topological models. Each study registers an urban processes characterized by change and uncertainty under various security and complexity strategies. The three selected empirical tests are the residential district of Bijlmermeer in Amsterdam, the suburb of Dobrinja in Sarajevo and the Beirut Central District. In the first test, the uncertainty triggered by fear and violence provoked structural changes in a system which was too simple and fragile to evolve: Fear and urban renewal in Bijlmermeer [1965-2016 ...]. In the second test, Dobrinja, a neighbourhood in Sarajevo, have suffered severe modifications, first provoked by the violence of the siege during the Bosnian War, and then by the Inter-Entity Boundary Line, which divided the neighbourhood and caused serious alterations in its demographic and spatial structure: Siege and homogenization in Dobrinja, Sarajevo [1992 - 2016 ...]. In the third test, the Beirut Central District, a socially and spatially complex area, was first destroyed by the uncertainty of the Lebanese Civil War and then by the process of subsequent reconstruction, which led to a simplification of its structure: Destruction and simplification in the Central District of Beirut [1975 - 2016 ...].
The purpose of each of these empirical tests is to validate the previously designed method and to evaluate the observations extracted from the conceptual framework on security and complexity in urban systems under increased uncertainty. The results prove the validity of the morphological and topological models in the analysis of urban systems affected by an accelerated change and identify specific strategies of security and complexity in the city building under high uncertainty.
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