Development and validation of a safety model in predicting accidents / incidents in the air traffic management system

• Autores: Schon ZhengYu LIANG CHENG
• Directores de la Tesis: Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés (dir. tes.)
• Lectura: En la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ( España ) en 2020
• Idioma: español
• Tribunal Calificador de la Tesis: Javier Crespo Moreno (presid.), José Félix Alonso Alarcón (secret.), Javier García-Heras Carretero (voc.), Ernesto Staffetti Giammaria (voc.), Luis Cadarso Morga (voc.)
• Programa de doctorado: Programa de Doctorado en Ingeniería Aeroespacial por la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
• Materias:
  • Ciencias tecnológicas
    • Ingeniería y tecnología aeronáuticas
      • Aeropuertos y transportes aéreos
      • Investigación aeronáutica y pruebas de vuelo
    • Tecnología de los sistemas de transporte
      • Líneas aéreas y control del trafico aéreo
• Enlaces
  • Tesis en acceso abierto en: Archivo Digital UPM
• Resumen

  • The demand for air traffic has shown significant growth in the last ten years, and the capacity of airspace has presented the signal of saturation to respond efficiently to this increase in air traffic volume. For this and many other reasons, developments of more complex and sophisticated new air traffic management systems, such as the SESAR programme in Europe, have been launched to meet future needs. New technologies must not only provide improvements in future operations but most importantly, they should reduce the risks to incidents, even accidents, that can occur nowadays. In the present, current systems, before being upgraded, remain our last defences in preventing accidents and incidents. Therefore, we must understand their operational deficiencies or failures that still exist, thus taking measures to prevent undesirable occurrences.

    According to EASA and EUROCONTROL reports of the last ten years, air traffic accidents have been drastically reduced, but the incidents have had a significant boom. In particular, incidents due to separation between aircraft have been classified as one of the categories of incidents with the highest risk and priority to be resolved.

    Approaching this direction, this research work has focused on analysing incidents of loss of separation, along with reports published by CEANITA, with the intention of modelling their causes using statistical methods. From there, predictions are carried with the support of modern mathematical methods to identify possible critical scenarios of incidents or even accidents of Mid-Air Collision.

    In addition, two other points of interest in development: i) the risk matrix is reviewed and modified to assess the evolution of the criticality of incidents; ii) Heinrich’s Pyramid Theory is applied to propose a more sophisticated prediction model.