Modelo de evacuación a escala variable. Una herramienta para la gestión de crisis volcánicas
- Autores: José Manuel Marrero Llinares
- Directores de la Tesis: Ramón Ortiz Ramís (dir. tes.), José Antonio Rodríguez Losada (dir. tes.)
- Lectura: En la Universidad de La Laguna ( España ) en 2009
- Idioma: español
- Tribunal Calificador de la Tesis: Joan Martí Molist (presid.), Antonio Manuel Eff-Darwich Peña (secret.), Angela Maria Cosentino (voc.), Moisés R. Simancas Cruz (voc.), S. De la Cruz-Reyna (voc.)
- Materias:
- Enlaces
- Tesis en acceso abierto en: Digital CSIC
- Resumen
Volcanic crisis management is the most important problem that modern volcanology has. Areas affected by hazardous volcanic phenomena can be very extensive and populated. The alert phase can last a lot of time and the only solution is the preventive evacuation of the whole population. In order to facilitate impact scenarios' integration in Evacuation Plans, in this work an evacuation model has been developed to simulate massive evacuations. This software is integrated in some computer applications that are developed for the volcanic crises management by different european volcanological research groups. Its possibilities are shown simulating evacuations in Teide (Spain), Chichon and Popocatepetl (Mexico) volcanoes. Emergency management is a responsibility of Civil Defense Authority. But if this is related to a volcanic phenomenon, the joint work of scientists and technical staff of the Civil Defense is needed. Emergency management by Civil Defense is based on the information facilitated by the scientific team on volcano's activity forecast and its awaited scenarios. Evacuations for volcanic threat can be extended for a long time so that they need a great quantity of economic and human resources. It is necessary to have updated specific Emergency Plans, in order to make them useful. The ideas developed during this work proceed from hours of discussion between scientists and technical staff of Civil Defense and they are not written in any document of public access. This knowledge represents more than ten years of personal experience in management volcanic crises with the Volcanology Department of the National Museum of Natural Sciences and the Institute Jaume Almera, both related to CSIC, and Edafology and Geology Department of the University of La Laguna (ULL), in collaboration with other countries institutions dedicated to researching, monitoring and managing volcanic emergencies. A review of current models for modeling massive evacuations has been done in order to extract and compare the elements that can be applied to the case of the evacuations in volcanic crisis. One of the most important elements during preventive evacuations is population behavior. Information about population distribution and road network is needed by the /evacuation model/ to simulate the evacuation of a threatened region by a volcano. In addition, the software considers road network vulnerability in relation to ash fall, seismicity and flows. This information is obtained by applying to different methodologies that use a Geographical Information System (GIS). This system also integrates cartography and administrative population databases. This integration requires a great effort because most of the time, administrative databases have not been easily organized for georeference. Besides, in some other cases, cartography has been drawn only using CAD criteria. In order to apply the evacuation model, it is necessary to digitize a road network in point layers and join the total inhabitants number to each point. An important aspect of this development is the automatic definition of crosses and mistakes detection. Population behavior is represented by means of distribution functions which are defined from the knowledge that authorities have of their population. The evacuation model has been programmed using the package BORLAND BUILDER 6. The basic functions have been coded in ANSI C to facilitate the migration to any platform (LINUX, MAC and WINDOWS).
